Political Consultant John Dowless Analyzes GOP Primary
By Space Coast Daily // November 3, 2015
ORLANDO, FLORIDA — Less than one week after the CNBC Republican Debate, New Hampshire voters are showing new support for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.
According to a poll released today by Monmouth University, real estate tycoon Donald Trump maintains his sizable lead in the New Hampshire Republican primary and Ben Carson holds onto second place, but the poll has a new occupant in the 3rd place slot – Marco Rubio.
Twenty-six percent of likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire continue to back Donald Trump for the presidential nomination, followed by Ben Carson at 16 percent, Marco Rubio at 13 percent, followed closely by Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 11 percent, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at nine percent and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at seven percent.
Monmouth’s poll used statewide random sample of 410 New Hampshire voters drawn from a list of registered Republican and independent voters who participated in a primary election in the past two election cycles or voted in both the 2012 and 2014 general elections.
With less than 90 days until Iowa Caucus and just over 3 months until the New Hampshire Primary Election, political analysis expect to see more candidates focus their ground game effort to get out the vote. Millennium Consulting CEO John Dowless is one of Central Florida’s most well-known political campaign consultants for Republicans.
As the former campaign manager of Steve’ Forbes’ 2000 Presidential Campaign against Arizona Sen. John McCain and then Texas Gov. George W. Bush, Dowless is familiar with Trump’s current role and took the time to answer three questions from Space Coast Daily:
Q: As Donald Trump slips in Iowa, do you think Rubio, could leapfrog Trump for the #2 spot and if so, what do type of strategy do you think Rubio would have to use?
A: I’ve worked the Iowa caucuses before, and can tell you first hand that a campaign’s ground game is the determining factor. If Rubio has a strong grassroots organization, he could pass Trump. If not, it will be difficult.
Q: If you were advising Jeb Bush, would you tell him to ditch Iowa and focus on Florida?
A: That’s a double-edged sword for Jeb. If he has put a lot of resources into Iowa already and then announces he’s pulling out, he would suffer far more damage than if he just stayed quiet and moved resources to another state. As a winner take all state, a Florida win would give Jeb a really nice jump.
Q: If Mike Huckabee ultimately finishes below third place in Iowa and leaves the race, do you think Cruz could challenge Trump or Carson for the top spot?
A: That’s hard to say, because I think Huckabee supporters will divide among a few candidates. I don’t see all of his supporters going exclusively to Cruz.