National Hurricane Center Gives Disturbance Off Florida 40 Percent Chance of Developing into Cyclone

By  //  May 13, 2018

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Regardless of development, heavy rain and gusty thunderstorms can persist over Florida, the Bahamas, and Cuba for the next couple of days. (NHC image)

BREVARD COUNTY, FLORIDA – According to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, a large area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms extending from western Cuba and across much of the Florida Peninsula could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics while it moves slowly northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.

Regardless of development, heavy rain and gusty thunderstorms can persist over Florida, the Bahamas, and Cuba for the next couple of days.

The system is associated with a broad surface low and trough interacting with an upper-level low.

For more information on this system, stay tuned to Space Coast Daily and your local weather office for alerts and details.

The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 11 a.m. Monday.

It isn’t all that unusual to see a tropical system develop in mid-May ahead of the June 1 hurricane season start date.

According to the NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks website, storm formation has happened 11 times since satellites began monitoring the ocean in the 1970s, with seven of these depressions going on to become named storms.

That’s about a one in seven-year event.

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According to Weather Underground co-founder Dr. Jeff Masters, Atlantic named storms have formed by May 15 the past three years in a row–an event with a 0.3 percent chance of occurrence based on statistics from the past 48 years:

• May 8, 2015: Tropical Storm Ana formed off the coast of South Carolina, and made landfall there on May 10 with 45 mph winds. Ana was the earliest landfalling U.S. tropical cyclone on record and caused one drowning death and minimal property damage.

• May 12, 2016: Hurricane Alex became a tropical storm in the waters south of the Azores. After peaking as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds, Alex hit the Azores as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds on January 15. Alex caused minimal damage and no deaths.

• April 20, 2017: Tropical Storm Arlene formed in the central Atlantic. After reaching top winds of 45 mph and spending 30 hours as a tropical storm, Arlene died. Arlene did not affect any land areas.

Just an FYI, the first name on the list of Atlantic storms for 2018 is Alberto.

Stay tuned to Space Coast Daily for updates on this story and throughout the hurricane season.

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