ELECTION 2018: Quinnipiac University Poll Released Tuesday Says Gillum Beating DeSantis 52-46
By Space Coast Daily // October 23, 2018
Quinnipiac University said it surveyed 1,161 Florida likely voters
Quinnipiac University – With big leads among women, black, Hispanic and independent voters, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, the Democratic candidate for Florida governor, has 52 percent of likely voters to 46 percent for former U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis, the Republican contender, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released on Tuesday.
This compares to a 54 – 45 percent likely voter lead for Mayor Gillum in a September 26 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University Poll.
From October 17 – 21, Quinnipiac University said it surveyed 1,161 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect.
According to the Quinnipiac University poll, there are wide racial, gender and partisan gaps:
- White voters back DeSantis 54 – 44 percent. The Democrat leads 99 – 1 percent among black voters and 59 – 36 percent among Hispanic voters;
- Women back Gillum 59 – 38 percent, as men back DeSantis 54 – 44 percent;
- Gillum leads 96 – 4 percent among Democrats and 57 – 39 percent among independent voters. Republicans back DeSantis 89 – 8 percent.
Only 2 percent of Florida likely voters remain undecided and 4 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind in the next 14 days.
“Looking inside the numbers of the governor’s race between Mayor Andrew Gillum and former U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis, we see shining examples of the problems Republicans face this year, not just in Florida, but around the country,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
“The GOP has faced strong opposition from women and other anti-Trump voters. These defections have hurt GOP candidates around the country and made it difficult to attract the numbers of independent voters that are often major players in successful campaigns.
“Here in Florida, that has translated into an 18-point Gillum lead among independent voters.”
“Even more problematic for the GOP and telling about Mayor Gillum’s candidacy, is that a liberal Democrat is on the plus side of a 50 – 47 percent split among white women,” Brown added.
According to the Quinnipiac University poll, Gillum has a 50 – 38 percent favorability rating among Florida likely voters, compared to 55 – 31 percent September 26.
DeSantis gets a split 43 – 43 percent favorability rating, compared to a slightly negative 42 – 47 percent favorability rating September 26.
Related Story:Space Coast League of Women Voters To Host Cape Canaveral Mayoral Candidate Forum Oct. 29
SEE THE ACTUAL SURVEY BELOW:
1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Gillum the Democrat and Ron DeSantis the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Andrew Gillum the Democrat or more toward Ron DeSantis the Republican?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Gillum 52% 8% 96% 57% 44% 59% 46% 41%
DeSantis 46 89 4 39 54 38 50 58
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 - 1 - -
DK/NA 2 1 - 4 2 3 3 2
WHITE.....
Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp
Gillum 37% 50% 44% 99% 59%
DeSantis 62 47 54 1 36
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - 1
DK/NA 2 3 2 - 3
WHITE...................
COLLEGE DEG NO COLLEGE
Men Wom Men Wom
Gillum 37% 54% 36% 45%
DeSantis 61 42 63 52
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 1
DK/NA 2 3 1 2
REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT.. INDEPENDENT
Men Wom Men Wom Men Wom
Gillum 7% 9% 94% 98% 51% 62%
DeSantis 91 87 6 2 45 33
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - - - 1
DK/NA - 2 - - 4 4
AREA.............................
North/ Bay Cen- South South
Panhdl Area tral West East
Gillum 39% 55% 51% 44% 61%
DeSantis 57 43 46 54 37
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - -
DK/NA 3 1 3 2 2
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS................
CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
Tot Gillum DeSantis
Mind made up 95% 95% 95%
Might change 4 4 4
DK/NA - - 1
2. Is your opinion of Andrew Gillum favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Favorable 50% 11% 90% 56% 42% 58% 47% 40%
Unfavorable 38 75 3 33 47 31 42 48
Hvn't hrd enough 10 13 5 9 10 10 8 11
REFUSED 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 1
WHITE.....
Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp
Favorable 36% 50% 44% 93% 58%
Unfavorable 53 38 45 1 28
Hvn't hrd enough 9 10 9 6 12
REFUSED 2 2 2 - 1
WHITE...................
COLLEGE DEG NO COLLEGE
Men Wom Men Wom
Favorable 37% 55% 35% 45%
Unfavorable 52 35 53 43
Hvn't hrd enough 8 8 10 12
REFUSED 2 2 2 1
REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT.. INDEPENDENT
Men Wom Men Wom Men Wom
Favorable 10% 12% 84% 94% 50% 61%
Unfavorable 78 71 5 2 41 26
Hvn't hrd enough 11 15 9 3 7 11
REFUSED 1 2 1 1 2 2
AREA.............................
North/ Bay Cen- South South
Panhdl Area tral West East
Favorable 39% 53% 49% 42% 60%
Unfavorable 44 36 42 47 29
Hvn't hrd enough 15 9 8 11 8
REFUSED 2 2 1 - 3
3. Is your opinion of Ron DeSantis favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Favorable 43% 83% 5% 37% 50% 37% 47% 53%
Unfavorable 43 9 77 46 36 48 43 36
Hvn’t hrd enough 13 7 17 15 11 14 8 8
REFUSED 2 2 – 2 3 1 2 2
WHITE…..
Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp
Favorable 57% 44% 50% 3% 37%
Unfavorable 32 47 40 63 45
Hvn’t hrd enough 8 9 8 32 18
REFUSED 3 1 2 2 –
WHITE……………….
COLLEGE DEG NO COLLEGE
Men Wom Men Wom
Favorable 57% 38% 57% 50%
Unfavorable 33 51 31 42
Hvn’t hrd enough 7 9 9 8
REFUSED 2 2 3 –
REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT.. INDEPENDENT
Men Wom Men Wom Men Wom
Favorable 85% 79% 5% 5% 42% 32%
Unfavorable 8 9 76 78 40 52
Hvn’t hrd enough 4 10 17 17 15 14
REFUSED 2 1 1 – 3 1
AREA………………………..
North/ Bay Cen- South South
Panhdl Area tral West East
Favorable 52% 42% 42% 54% 35%
Unfavorable 31 44 46 41 46
Hvn’t hrd enough 15 12 11 3 17
REFUSED 2 2 1 1 2
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