POLL: Quinnipiac Finds Clinton Holds Slimmest of Leads Against Trump In Key Swing States, Florida
By Quinnipiac University // August 10, 2016
Florida - Clinton at 46 percent to Trump's 45 percent
(Quinnipiac University) – With huge gender gaps marking the presidential race, Democrat Hillary Clinton is in a virtual likely voter tie with Republican Donald Trump in Florida, but holds the slimmest of leads in Ohio and a 10-point advantage in Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released Tuesday.
In a campaign driven by negatives, most Trump supporters say they mainly are voting anti- Clinton while many Clinton supporters say they are voting anti-Trump, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds.
The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states. This is the first survey of likely voters in this election cycle and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.
The presidential matchups show:
– Florida – Clinton at 46 percent to Trump’s 45 percent;
– Ohio – Clinton edges Trump 49 – 45 percent;
– Pennsylvania – Clinton leads Trump 52 – 42 percent.
With third party candidates in the race, results are:
– Florida – Clinton and Trump tied at 43 – 43 percent, with 7 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 3 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein;
– Ohio – Clinton at 44 percent to Trump’s 42 percent, with Johnson at 8 percent and Stein at 3 percent;
– Pennsylvania – Clinton tops Trump 48 – 39 percent with 7 percent for Johnson and 3 percent for Stein.
“This Swing State Poll shows a mixed result for the presidential candidates, although certainly with an overall edge for Secretary Hillary Clinton. She has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania and the narrowest of edges in Ohio, but Florida, with the largest cache of Electoral College votes is a tie,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
“When voters are asked about a four-way ballot that includes Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein, Trump picks up a point or two against Secretary Clinton in each of the three states.”
“It is not that her voters are in love with Secretary Clinton — they just dislike her less than they disdain Trump. In fact, among Clinton voters in all three states more than four in 10 say their opposition to Trump, rather than their liking of her, is the main reason for their vote. Among Trump voters, dislike of Secretary Clinton is even a larger factor in their choice. Among Trump voters, well over half say they back him because they dislike her.”
Clinton holds leads of 13 to 23 percentage points among women, while Trump’s lead among men ranges from 5 to 12 percentage points,
Clinton and Trump both get negative favorability ratings in each state.
First Lady Michelle Obama gets the highest favorability scores in each state, followed by President Barack Obama, former President Bill Clinton and Melania Trump, although many voters say they don’t know enough about Ms. Trump to form an opinion.
Florida women back Clinton 53 – 40 percent, while men back Trump 51 – 39 percent. Republicans back Trump 91 – 5 percent, while Clinton leads 89 – 8 percent among Democrats. Independent voters are divided with 42 percent for Clinton and 41 percent for Trump. White voters back Trump 57 – 36 percent, as non-white voters go to Clinton 68 – 21 percent.
Florida voters give Clinton and Trump negative favorability ratings, 39 – 55 percent for her and 39 – 54 percent for him. Other favorability ratings are:
61 – 27 percent for First Lady Michelle Obama;
53 – 43 percent for President Barack Obama;
53 – 40 percent for former President and potential First Husband Bill Clinton;
31 – 23 percent for potential First Lady Melania Trump.