VIDEO: Winter Weather Outlook In East Central Florida Calls For Warmer, Drier Conditions
By National Weather Service // October 25, 2016
DRIER CONDITIONS RAISES RISK FOR WILDFIRES
ABOVE VIDEO: Produced by the Climate.gov team in cooperation with climate and Earth scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the regional outlook for Winter 2016-17 is forecasted.
(NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE) – The Florida dry season forecast is issued for the period between November 1, 2016 and April 30, 2017 and is intended to serve as an early warning of significant impacts from climatic variability for planners and decision makers.
Seasonal temperature and precipitation for Central Florida, as well as the number of extratropical storms expected to impact the state are forecast into two separate periods: November-December-January (NDJ) and February-March-April (FMA).
The forecast for the 2016 – 2017 dry season slightly favors above normal temperatures, based on the assumption of continued cool-neutral ENSO conditions through fall and winter. Forecast confidence remains low since other large-scale phenomena can overwhelm the weak ENSO signal.
The forecast for the 2016 – 2017 dry season favors below average precipitation, based on the assumption of continued cool-neutral ENSO conditions through fall and winter.
The forecast for the 2016 – 2017 dry season favors below average storminess for the state, based on the assumption of continued cool-neutral ENSO conditions through fall and winter. Based on the latest cool-neutral ENSO forecast, logistic regression guidance provides greater chances (50-60%) of below normal storminess throughout the dry season.
Forecast Recap | Updated October 2016
ENSO-neutral conditions are favored into the fall and winter of 2016 with slightly below average water temperatures
expected over the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Seasonal temperatures should trend above normal, though considerable uncertainty remains as other large scale
atmospheric phenomenon can overwhelm a weak ENSO signal.
Shorter-range weather patterns will likely dictate the potential for freeze events in Central Florida.
Seasonal precipitation should trend below normal during the upcoming dry season, which may promote drought and
condition the environment for an active wildfire season into early 2017.
While seasonal storminess is forecast to be below or near normal, individual storm systems can bring an increased risk of hazardous weather, including severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.
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