NOAA: Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Worse Than First Predicted
By The Weather Channel // August 14, 2017
'season has potential to be extremely active'
(TWC) – NOAA has raised the number of named storms it expects to develop in their latest 2017 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, warning that “the season has the potential to be extremely active.”
In their August outlook update released Wednesday, NOAA forecasters said there is a high chance – 60 percent – of an above-average hurricane season, with 14 to 19 named storms expected throughout the season.
The NOAA team expects near to slightly above average hurricane activity through November following just one hurricane so far. NOAA also increased their forecast for major hurricanes from their May outlook, expecting 2 to 5 Category 3 or stronger hurricanes.
Tropical storms Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don and Emily, and Hurricane Franklin – all of which have already occurred – are included in the seasonal forecast numbers in the outlook.
The updated forecast is above the Atlantic Basin’s 30-year historical average (1981-2010) of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
• NOAA has increased its forecast to 14-19 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes and 2-5 major hurricanes this season.
• This season has the potential to be extremely active, according to NOAA.
• Warm water temperatures and vanishing El Niño odds are reasons for the increased numbers.
• Six named storms have already formed this year in the Atlantic Basin; all but one was relatively short-lived.
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