National Hurricane Center Monitoring System In Gulf With Significant Rainfall Potential For Brevard
By Space Coast Daily // May 23, 2018
4-6 inches of additional rain possible in Brevard
BREVARD COUNTY, FLORIDA– A low pressure system is heading towards the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days and has the potential to be a large rainmaker for much of the Florida peninsula, including Brevard county, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
A broad surface low centered just east of Belize is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba into the Florida peninsula.
Strong upper-level winds and dry air aloft will limit any chance of developing into a tropical system over the next 48-hours.
However, the NHC gives the system a 40-percent chance of subtropical or tropical development late this week while the system moves slowly northward into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and much of Florida during the next several days.
According to Weather Underground, Orlando-Melbourne International Airport has received 5.53 inches of rain so far this month compared to 2.16 inches last May.
As for tropical system development ahead of the June 1 hurricane season start date, it’s not as uncommon as you might think. Tropical systems have developed prior to June 1 in each of the past three years.
Last year, Tropical Storm Arlene formed in the central Atlantic on April 20 and after reaching top winds of 45 mph and spending 30 hours as a tropical storm, Arlene died. Arlene did not affect any land areas.
The last system to impact the United states prior to June 1 occurred in 2015. Tropical Storm Ana formed off the coast of South Carolina, and made landfall there on May 10 with 45 mph winds. Ana was the earliest landfalling U.S. tropical cyclone on record and caused one drowning death and minimal property damage.
According to the NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks website, storm formation has happened 11 times since satellites began monitoring the ocean in the 1970s, with seven of these depressions going on to become named storms.
That’s about a one in seven-year event.
ABOVE VIDEO: A broad surface low centered just east of Belize is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba into the Florida peninsula.
According to Weather Underground co-founder Dr. Jeff Masters, Atlantic named storms have formed by May 15 the past three years in a row–an event with a 0.3 percent chance of occurrence based on statistics from the past 48 years:
• May 8, 2015: Tropical Storm Ana formed off the coast of South Carolina, and made landfall there on May 10 with 45 mph winds. Ana was the earliest landfalling U.S. tropical cyclone on record and caused one drowning death and minimal property damage.
• May 12, 2016: Hurricane Alex became a tropical storm in the waters south of the Azores. After peaking as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds, Alex hit the Azores as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds on January 15. Alex caused minimal damage and no deaths.
• April 20, 2017: Tropical Storm Arlene formed in the central Atlantic. After reaching top winds of 45 mph and spending 30 hours as a tropical storm, Arlene died. Arlene did not affect any land areas.
The first name on the list of Atlantic storms for 2018 is Alberto.
Governor Rick Scott urged Floridians on Tuesday to prepare for significant rain and possible flooding as the state continues to monitor the development of the weather system in the Caribbean Sea.
In anticipation of heavy rain and flooding across Gulf Coast communities this week, Governor Scott today also directed Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) Executive Director Eric Sutton to pre-position and stage the agency’s high water vehicles and other flood response resources for rapid deployment if needed.
The weather system, now designated as Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), is currently east of Belize and producing a large area of disorganized weather as it slowly moves north into the Gulf of Mexico.
The Governor received a briefing from the Florida Division of Emergency Management (FDEM) on the weather system this morning.
“As we continue to monitor the developing weather system in the Caribbean Sea, we know that families can never be too careful or over-prepared when it comes to severe weather,” said Gov. Rick Scott.
“Although the storm currently has a relatively low chance of development into a tropical system, we must take it seriously. That’s why it is critically important that all Floridians take this opportunity to get prepared and make a plan that ensures the safety of their family and loved ones. To make sure we are absolutely prepared, today, I also directed FWC Executive Director Eric Sutton to pre-position and stage its high water vehicles and all other flood response resources so they may be rapidly deployed to assist Floridians in need in the event of any flooding. FDEM is working hand-in-hand with the NHC to track this weather and we will continue to release regular updates on Florida’s preparation for severe weather and flooding as this system develops. I encourage all Floridians to follow @FLSERT on Twitter and visit FloridaDisaster.org to create an emergency preparedness plan for their family today.”
Stay tuned to Space Coast Daily for updates on this story and throughout the hurricane season.
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