HURRICANE DORIAN NHC 11 P.M. UPDATE: Storm Continues to Track Off Brevard Coast, Space Coast Under Hurricane Warning

BREVARD COUNTY UNDER HURRICANE WARNING

SPACE COAST DAILY TV HURRICANE DORIAN UPDATE: Space Daily’s Chris Bonanno discusses the latest report by the National Hurricane Center on Hurricane Dorian as of 11 p.m. Sunday. The storm’s projected track continues to track offshore of Brevard County in the 11 p.m. advisory for the National Hurricane Center. Brevard County will experience tropical-force and possibly hurricane-force winds. The National Hurricane Center upgraded Hurricane Dorian to a Category 5 hurricane on Sunday after the latest report shows Dorian registering 185 mph max sustained winds as it pounds the Bahamas.

BREVARD COUNTY UNDER HURRICANE WARNING

BREVARD COUNTY, FLORIDA – The National Hurrican Center reported at 11 p.m. Sunday that Hurricane Dorian’s forecast path continues to track offshore of Brevard County and now predicts the center of the storm will be just east of the Space Coast Tuesday evening.

Hurricane Dorian, with nearly unprecedented strength, struck the northern Bahamas as a catastrophic Category 5 storm Sunday, as hundreds hunkered down in schools, churches and shelters.

The 185 mph winds have made it the second-strongest storm in the Atlantic Ocean since 1950.

Reports show maximum sustained winds have remained at 185 mph with wind gusts reaching over 200 mph.

Brevard County is now under a Hurricane Warning.

Dorian remains an incredibly powerful hurricane and it is currently making landfall on the eastern end of Grand Bahama Island. Satellite images show a symmetrical cyclone with a circular 10 n mi diameter eye and intense eyewall convection with lots of lightning being detected.

Doppler radar data from Miami and the Bahamas show that Dorian has developed concentric eyewalls, and this feature is
also noted by a double wind maximum that is evident in data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters.

The initial intensity of Dorian is set at 155 kt based mostly on the SFMR winds from the aircraft. The aircraft data also indicated that the radii of tropical-storm-force winds are a little larger than they were earlier today.

Dorian is still moving slowly westward at about 5 kt. The ridge to the north of Dorian is gradually weakening and shifting eastward in response to a mid- to upper-level trough that is moving across the eastern U.S.

This change in the steering pattern should cause Dorian to slow down even more and perhaps stall before it turns to the northwest late Monday or early Tuesday.

This expected slow motion will likely be devastating to the Great Abaco and Grand Bahama Islands since it would prolong the catastrophic winds, storm surge, and rainfall over those areas.

The timing of the northwest or north turn is very critical in determining how close Dorian will get to the Florida peninsula on Tuesday and Wednesday.

In general, the track models have changed little from the previous cycle, and the NHC forecast continues to show the core of Dorian very near, but offshore, of the Florida peninsula on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The hurricane is then expected to track near the Georgia and Carolina coasts late this week. This forecast is in best agreement with the various consensus models, which typically have the lowest errors.

It is once again emphasized that although the official track forecast does not show landfall, users should not focus on the exact track. A small deviation to the left of the track could bring the intense core of the hurricane and its dangerous winds closer to or onto the Florida coast.

Category 5 hurricanes like Dorian usually don’t hold that intensity for very long, and it is expected that Dorian will weaken slowly during the next few days.

However, the observed eyewall replacement cycle will likely cause fluctuations in strength, both up and down, while the system is near Florida. The models show an increase in shear when Dorian tracks near Georgia and the Carolinas, which
should cause more notable weakening.

This forecast is near the high end of the latest model guidance.

Based on this forecast, the hurricane watch has been extended northward to the Florida-Georgia line.

Key Messages:

• Life-threatening storm surges and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast through mid-week, and storm surge and hurricane warnings are in effect. Only a slight deviation to the left of the official forecast would bring the core of Dorian near or over the Florida east coast. Residents should listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

• Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the United States through late this week.

• A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, See below:

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Florida by late Monday or early Tuesday.

The historic mark ties the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, which hit the Florida Keys, as the strongest landfalling hurricane in the Atlantic basin.

After passing through the Bahamas, Hurricane Dorian will begin to make a turn to the north around Monday afternoon. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Dorian’s Forecast Timing – Presented by Weather.com

Monday: Dorian will still be hammering the northwest Bahamas as it crawls slowly. Bands of rain, strong winds may affect parts of Florida. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in the tropical storm warning area of eastern Florida. How strong the winds will depend on how close the center of Dorian is to the Florida coast, which is still uncertain at this time. Battering waves, coastal flooding and beach erosion will increase along the southeast coast of Florida.

Tuesday: Dorian will still be hammering the northwest Bahamas, but conditions, there may slowly improve by night. Bands of rain, strong winds will still affect parts of Florida. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in the tropical storm warning area of eastern Florida. We cannot rule out the potential for hurricane-force winds, depending on how close the center tracks to the coast. Coastal flooding and beach erosion will spread north along the Florida coast.

Wednesday-Thursday: Dorian is expected to move north, then northeast near the coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. The exact track is very uncertain, ranging from a track far enough offshore to keep hurricane-force winds away from land, to a landfall anywhere in this zone. Storm surge flooding, damaging winds and flooding rain are all possible in these areas.

Friday-Saturday: Dorian is then expected to race off the Northeast Seaboard, but could track close enough to bring rain and some wind to the Virginia Tidewater, Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard and Cape Cod, before it heads toward the Canadian Maritimes by next weekend.

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