Week 6 & 7 MNF, TNF Betting Report
By Space Coast Daily // October 24, 2020
Let’s have a look at weekday NFL football for the week of October 23rd. We had two Week 6 MNF games. One between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills and another with the Arizona Cardinals and Dallas Cowboys.
Later there was a Week 7 TNF matchup between the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles.
Let’s break down the NFL odds and analyze the outcome to check the updated betting trends of each of the six teams involved.
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Kansas City -5.5 @ Buffalo
The Kansas City Chiefs opened up as just 3.5-point favorites over the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills. By kickoff time, the spread had moved an entire two points to -5.5. This means the Chiefs took a significant amount of action. Much more money went on the KC side to move the line by two points.
That said, it didn’t matter. Pat Mahomes and the KC Chiefs easily covered the closing line and won the game by nine points. This comes thanks to holding the Bills to a scoreless third quarter.
The game was actually closer than the score indicates. The 1st quarter was 7-3 for the chiefs, the 2nd quarter was 7-6, Bills for a halftime score of 13-10 favoring KC. So, the 3rd quarter Chiefs D made all the difference.
Now Buffalo has moved to 3-3 against the spread, while Kansas City is 4-2 ATS.
The TOTAL was set at 55 points, so that number was quite a bit high. The 26-17 score only amounts to 43, way UNDER the posted total. The total was so high because the Bills were 4-0-1 on the OVER, while the Chiefs were 2-3-0. Although they had a losing OVER record, their totals are always set fairly high because of their potent offense. Now the Bills are 4-1-1 on the OVER, and the Chiefs are 2-4.
ARIZONA @ DALLAS
Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals headed over to Arlington, Texas to face the Dallas Cowboys as one-point underdogs on most of the closing lines.
Again we say a two-point line movement. The line opened with the Cardinals as 3-point dogs, and they took enough action to move them down to just 1-point underdogs. A lot of bettors made a pretty penny because they smashed the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium.
Murray and Drake couldn’t be stopped. Kenyan Drake rushed for 164 yards and 2 TDs on 20 touches. Murray only passed for 188 yards, but he also dropped two TDs in. On the flip-side, the Dallas Cowboys could get their offense going.
You can’t really blame Andy Dalton. Sure he had two interceptions, but Ezekial Elliott got 12 touches and only rushed for 49 yards. Dalton managed to put in a TD and 266 passing yards.
Needless to say, the Cardinals got the backdoor cover and moves to 4-2 against the spread. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are the second-worst team to bet on in the league at 0-6 ATS. The only team that’s worse is the NY Jets, who are also 0-6, but with an average inability to cover by double-digits!
The TOTAL betting line was set at 52 points, but the number only made it to 48. Now the Cardinals are the worst team against the OVER. Not a single game they have played has cashed in OVER the TOTAL. Or, we could say that they are the best team for the UNDER. Dallas moves to 4-2 on the OVER. Now at 66.7% at covering the posted TOTAL.
TNF: New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
The opening line was set at 5.5, with the Eagles favored. The betting line was bet down a half-point to -5 at most shops. Those backing the Giants were smart, as the G-Men almost won the day.
This is a game I stayed away from because, although I thought the Eagles would win, I knew they were really banged up, so I had doubts about them covering the number.
With this latest failure against the spread, the Eagles are one of the worst ATS teams in the league at 2-5 (just 28.6%). On the flip side, the Giants move to 4-3, a profitable 4-3 (57.1% ATS).
The TOTAL opened at 47.5 but was bet way down. As low as 44.5 at some books. Under backers won the day as the combined score was 43.
Philly is now 4-3 on the OVER, still profitable for over betters, and the Giants move to 2-5 against the OVER, just 28.6%. With almost no offense and just enough defense to get a few big stops, the G-Men remain an Auto fade on the OVER as the UNDER has cashed in five of their seven games.
The consensus is to keep fading the Cardinals and the Giants when it comes to the OVER and stick with the Chiefs and their ability to cover big numbers.