Ravens vs. Jaguars Odds, Picks and Predictions

Online sports betting in Maryland officially debuts on Wednesday, November 23rd, with a “soft open” allowing the licensed online sportsbooks to take bets between 2pm and 10PM EST on Monday to catch any last-minute issues.

Assuming that went according to plan, residents can take advantage of some attractive Maryland betting promos ahead of an enormous slate of holiday football coming our ways.

The Baltimore Ravens become snowbirds this weekend and head down to the warmth and sunshine of Florida for a 1pm Sunday clash with the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Ravens enter on a 4-game win streak, while the last time we saw the Jaguars, they played a competitive game in Kansas City on the wrong end of a 27-17 score.

Both teams are relatively rested as the Jaguars had a bye last week while the Ravens 13-3 over the woeful Panthers on Sunday was only their 2nd contest since October 27th.

Ravens vs. Jaguars Odds for Week 12

Moneyline: Ravens -180 (PointsBet) Jaguars +175 (Caesars)

Point Spread: Ravens -3.5 (PointsBet) Jaguars +4 (FanDuel, BetMGM)

Total: Over 45.5 (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM) Under 46 (PointsBet)

The Ravens opened as 4-point road favorites, and the line has barely budged. You can find -3.5 out there, though at least one of the “sharp” offshore books is putting -115 juice on the Ravens at -4.

The total opened at 46.5 and briefly touched 47 but has since settled in mostly at 45.5 with 46 available here and there for under players.

Ravens vs. Jaguars Preview – Week 12

The Ravens have taken advantage of their relative inaction to get a bit healthier on both sides of the ball. Top target Mark Andrews returned last Sunday vs the Panthers, though the busiest receiver was oddly DeMarcus Robinson. Kenyan Drake has had his moments as the lead back, but he also throws in his share of low efficiency games to remind everyone why he has bounced from team to team so often. Gus Edwards may return to the backfield on Sunday.

Unfortunately, the Ravens best lineman Ronnie Stanley suffered an injury vs the Panthers after Lamar Jackson rolled over his ankle. Stanley is an All-Pro and protects Lamar’s blindside, so his potential absence is a big question mark hovering over Baltimore.

The fully operational Ravens offense is very good, ranking third in the league in overall offensive DVOA, including 1st in rushing DVOA. The Jags defense is nothing special, but at 11th in rushing DVOA they’ve held up well against ground games. 

Mark Andrews is far and away the top receiving threat in the Ravens offense with 48 catches on 72 targets for 551 yards, despite missing a game and change.

No other Raven has seen more than 38 targets. Andrews could pose a huge problem for Jacksonville as they rank dead last in the league in defensive DVOA vs tight ends.

The Jaguars do however enter the game on a very mini upswing. Trevor Lawrence has looked better of late, especially when targeting Christian Kirk. He posted QB ratings of 106.1 and 109 in his past two games, in addition to running a total of 10 times for 79 yards.

In fact, as far as pure passing goes, the two QB’s have reasonably similar overall stat lines. Jackson averages 6.00 adjusted net yards per attempt yards with 16 TDs, 7 INT’s and a 91.7 rating vs Lawrence’s 6.07 ANY/A, 13 TDs, 6 INT’s and 89.7 Rating.

Of course, Lamar poses a much greater threat on the ground as he’s rushed for 666 yards on 97 attempts (6.9 YPC) vs 178 yards on 37 attempts for Lawrence (4.8 YPC). 

All the ink spilled over Kirk’s expensive free agent contract overshadows the fact that he’s a very talented wide receiver, something the Ravens lack right now with Rashod Bateman out for the season.

Kirk leads the Jags in virtually every basic and advanced receiving category with 52 catches on 82 targets, good for 679 yards. All rank him among the top 15 wide receivers in the league. 

Travis Etienne has emerged as an explosive threat from the Jags backfield as he averages a robust 5.5 YPC, good for 4th in the league among qualified RB’s. On the flip side, Etienne feels way under-utilized in the Jags mediocre pass game as he’s yet to top 3 targets in any contest.

That’s especially odd considering Lawrence and Etienne were teammates at Clemson and he projects as a dangerous threat if the Jags could figure out how to get him the ball in space. The Jags overall are firmly meh on offense, ranking 11th in passing DVOA, 14th in rushing and 13th overall.

Ravens vs. Jaguars Best Bet: Under 46, would play down to 44.5

The Ravens are in a bit of an extended donut in their schedule. With the Panthers last week, the Jags on Sunday and the Broncos heading to the Big Crabcake on December 4th, Baltimore has three straight weak opponents heading into their final season stretch.

That last month sees the Ravens facing four divisional opponents in a five week stretch. Sunday’s game feels like a spot where the Ravens do their best to take care of business and enjoy the nice weather ahead of a month of cold and windy games. Also, both teams tend to take their time with their possessions.

The Ravens have averaged 30.51 seconds per play this season, the second slowest in the league. The Jags don’t exactly hurry either as they clock in at 18th in pace at 28.11 seconds/play.

Further the Ravens have a bit of a trend going in this setup. The last 9 times the Ravens have been favored by 3.5 points or more on the road, the Under has cashed. In fact, the last 5 instances featured Totals between 44-47, right where the Total on this game will probably land. 

Jaguars vs. Ravens Prediction for Week 12

The Jags have spent most of 2022 playing close games, as have the Ravens.  I like the Jags to keep it within striking distances, but the Ravens to ultimately prevail.

I’m going to go with a final score of Ravens winning 23-20 thanks to some Justin Tucker money kicks.

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