Profitable Betting on a Tie: Is That Possible?
By Space Coast Daily // September 3, 2023
If you bet on football matches more often at betting sites not on GamStop, you may have noticed that the odds for a draw are often the highest odds. How can you benefit from these odds, even though not every match ends in a draw? We explain how to bet on a tie!
How Popular Is Betting on a Draw at Non GamStop Bookmakers?
Most sports bettors are not fans of betting on the draw. After all, a draw is a third option to winning and losing and sports bettors prefer 50-50 odds if they have to declare the winner of a sports match. That is one of the reasons that tennis and badminton are popular betting markets: the draw option is missing.
In sports where the outcome of a match can be a draw, bets are offered to limit the risk factor of this third betting option.
Think of bets like draw no bet, where you get your stake back if the match ends in a draw. Or, for example, a double chance, where you can increase your chances of winning by including the draw in the prediction on the home or away club.
However, there is one more way to deal with a tie in your betting. That is precisely betting on a draw. Not randomly, but with a system. A system based on the Fibonacci sequence.
The Fibonacci sequence is the beginning of an infinite series of numbers used by gambling enthusiasts to determine the size of their bet on a bet or roulette game. You do not necessarily have to bet according to these numbers, but according to the principle of these numbers.
If your first stake is 5 euros, then the stakes for your second, third and fourth bets are 5 euros, 10 euros and 15 euros respectively.
You only apply this strategy as long as you lose bets. When you win you have made a profit. That is why this Fibonacci sequence is so loved by sports bettors and gamblers. After a profitable bet, you have to start again at the front of the series of numbers.
The Fibonacci sequence of numbers was first described by the Italian mathematician Leonardo de Pisa. His nickname was Fibonacci. In his scientific books, this series of numbers turned up several times. In addition to sports betting and casino sites not on Gamstop, the series also occurs in physics and biology.
Another aspect to consider is that betting on a tie is statistically unpopular among sports bettors. That automatically means that the odds of a draw are higher. Sometimes even higher than you might expect based on the statistics.
Stick to Strategy at Non GamStop Bookmakers
You will probably immediately see that betting on a tie is getting more interesting, but that the number of matches that end in a tie is still below the statistical number of 33%. So there are still more games won than drawn.
You will therefore not win every bet on a tie. That’s why it’s important to stick to the Fibonacci sequence. With this, you make up all lost bets the moment you win a bet. Whether that is the sixth or the sixteenth bet. Probability tells us that if you stick to your strategy, you will eventually win.
To determine the amount of your profit, two things are of decisive importance:
- The amount of your first bet
- The odds of the tie
The amount of your first bet is important because you must be able to maintain the strategy in accordance with the Fibonacci sequence. Your budget must be sufficient to absorb an x number of lost bets.
If you place a first bet of €2, you will therefore need an investment of €68 for the ninth bet after eight lost bets. Of course, you have to have this budget.
Betting on football matches should remain a fun hobby. With a small budget, you better choose from 10 or 20 cents. After all, you don’t know where in the series your winning bet falls.
Odds Are Decisive for Betting on a Draw at Non GamStop Bookmakers
Whether you can make up for your lost bets with one winning bet is also determined by the odds that the bookmaker gives on a draw.
To be sure of winning, the odds of a tie must be higher than 2.61 times your stake. Matches where the odds for a draw are lower than 2.61 should be ignored.
Average Percentage of Draws
We established earlier in this article that the number of draws in the Eredivisie is increasing, but is still below the statistical 33.33%. There are football leagues where the percentage of draws is higher.
Take Serie B in Italy for example. There, 131 games of the 380 games played in the 2019/2020 season ended in a draw. That is a percentage of 34.4%. This makes it even (slightly) more likely in Serie B that a match will end in a draw than the statistical 33.33%.
If you search carefully you will undoubtedly find more leagues that have a percentage of draws around 33% or even higher. The higher the draw percentage, the shorter your Fibonacci sequence of bets will be, so the more times you can play the sequence, the more profit you will make.
Is this a failproof system for betting profitably? Yes. On paper. That last addition is very important. There is a small catch that you have to take into account: the limits of the bookmaker.
In addition to making a good estimate of your available budget, as we have already discussed above, you must also take into account the fact that bookmakers have betting limits.
If you decide that your first bet should be €10, then your bet will increase from 10+10+20+30+50+80+130+210+340 to 550 euros on the tenth bet.
It would be a shame if you play at a bookmaker that has a betting limit of 500 because then your Fibonacci sequence will be skewed and all the waiting for the winning bet will have been for nothing.