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Tropical Storm Melissa Expected to Rapidly Strengthen Into Category 4 Hurricane

By  //  October 23, 2025

Hurricane Season runs through November 30

ABOVE VIDEO: Melissa Could Deliver “Triple-Disaster” Impacts of Hurricane Harvey, Dorian, and Helene

BREVARD COUNTY, FLORIDA – Tropical Storm Melissa is forecast to undergo rapid intensification over the next several days, potentially becoming a powerful Category 4 hurricane as it approaches the northern Caribbean this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

As of 8 p.m. EDT, Melissa was centered near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 75.5 West, moving slowly north at about 2 mph.

The storm’s maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts, and a minimum central pressure of 1000 mb was recorded by NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft.

Forecasters expect gradual strengthening through Friday, with rapid intensification likely over the weekend as the system moves closer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti.

Tropical Storm Melissa is forecast to undergo rapid intensification over the next several days, potentially becoming a powerful Category 4 hurricane as it approaches the northern Caribbean this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Watches and Warnings

A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-au-Prince, as well as for Jamaica. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for these same areas.

A Hurricane Watch means hurricane conditions are possible within the next 48 hours, while a Tropical Storm Warning indicates tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours. The NHC warned that a Hurricane Warning may be issued for Jamaica tonight or early Friday as confidence grows in Melissa’s strengthening trend.

Forecast and Track

Melissa is expected to move slowly northward or north-northeastward through Friday before making a sharp westward turn over the weekend. On this forecast track, the storm will move closer to Jamaica and the southwestern coast of Haiti by Saturday.

Forecasters anticipate Melissa will reach hurricane strength by Saturday and could become a major hurricane by late Sunday, with the potential to reach Category 4 intensity as it moves over warm Caribbean waters.

Rainfall and Flooding Threat

Heavy rainfall poses a significant threat across the region. The NHC forecasts 8 to 14 inches of rain across southern Haiti, southern Dominican Republic, and eastern Jamaica through Sunday, with locally higher totals possible.
These intense rains are expected to trigger life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides, particularly in southern Haiti, where terrain vulnerability is high.

Northern Haiti, northern Dominican Republic, and western Jamaica could see 2 to 4 inches of rain, with flooding and urban inundation possible through the weekend.

Storm Surge and Surf

Minor coastal flooding is likely along Jamaica’s southern coast by late Friday into Saturday as tropical-storm-force winds begin to impact the island. However, the NHC cautioned that a more significant storm surge could develop early next week, depending on Melissa’s exact path and strength.

Large swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions through the next several days.

What’s Next

Residents in Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic are urged to closely monitor the progress of Melissa and to follow updates from local meteorological services. Preparations for potential hurricane conditions should be completed as soon as possible, as conditions may deteriorate quickly over the weekend.