2025 Hurricane Season Could See 17 Named Storms, With Four Projected to Intensify into CAT 3 or Higher

51% chance that at least one major hurricane will strike the U.S. coastline this year

The Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane research team has released its initial forecast for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, anticipating heightened storm activity compared to historical averages.

According to the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project, this year’s hurricane season, which spans June 1 to November 30, could see 17 named storms. Nine are expected to become hurricanes, with four projected to intensify into major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher with sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour.

On average, the Atlantic basin experiences around 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes per season.

Dr. Phil Klotzbach, lead scientist on the CSU forecasting team, attributes the anticipated uptick in activity to warmer-than-average Atlantic waters and the expected absence of a strong El Niño pattern in the Pacific. Typically, El Niño can inhibit hurricane formation by increasing vertical wind shear, which disrupts storm development.

“We’re not expecting El Niño conditions this summer or fall,” Klotzbach explained. “Without that added wind shear, and with the Atlantic remaining warmer than usual, the environment will likely be more favorable for storm development.”

Despite the forecast, Klotzbach emphasized the inherent uncertainty of early-season predictions.

“A lot can still change before the season peaks in August and September,” he said. “While we provide broad outlooks for the Atlantic, we can’t determine where individual storms will go or which communities might be impacted.”

Statistical probabilities released by CSU suggest a 51% chance that at least one major hurricane will strike the U.S. coastline this year, compared to the historical average of 43%. The likelihood of a major hurricane making landfall along the East Coast stands at 26%, while the Gulf Coast faces a 33% probability — both above long-term norms.

This marks the 42nd year that the CSU team has issued seasonal hurricane forecasts. The 2025 forecast shares characteristics with past seasons such as 1996, 1998, and 2017 — years that saw a wide range of storm activity, highlighting the unpredictable nature of early outlooks.

CSU plans to release updated forecasts on June 11, July 9, and August 6 as the season progresses.

AccuWeather’s independent outlook, published in March, echoes CSU’s concerns. The private weather forecasting firm predicts between 13 and 18 named storms this season, with a possibility of exceeding 20. Their projections include seven to ten hurricanes and up to five major storms. AccuWeather estimates that three to six hurricanes could strike the U.S. directly.

AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva warned that the Gulf Coast and Carolinas could face heightened risks this year. He referenced Hurricane Helene from 2024, which caused deadly flooding and wind damage far inland in North Carolina.

“Last year proved that hurricane impacts can stretch hundreds of miles from the coast,” DaSilva said. “Every storm should be taken seriously.”

Both CSU and AccuWeather urge coastal residents to begin preparations now, regardless of seasonal forecasts.

“Preparedness is key,” Klotzbach stressed. “Storms don’t need to make a direct hit to cause significant damage. Being ready ahead of time can make all the difference.”

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