Marco Rubio Rises, Jeb Bush Fades In Latest GOP Primary Poll

By  //  October 20, 2015

poll shows Bush with only 9 percent of vote

Jeb Bush has fallen to single-digit percentages in support according to the latest results from the University of North Florida poll of likely Republican primary voters.

JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA — Jeb Bush has fallen to single-digit percentages in support according to the latest results from the University of North Florida poll of likely Republican primary voters.  

Most political pundits were not surprised by Donald Trump’s first-place ranking with 21.7 percent of the vote, however Jeb Bush’s drop in support is making national headlines.

The poll shows Bush with only nine percent of the vote,  finishing behind Ben Carson (19.3 percent) and Marco Rubio (14.9 percent)

Javier Manjarres
Javier Manjarres

“To say that Bush is in trouble in his home state is a huge understatement,” said Javier Manjarres, a Florida political reporter at

Manjarres has covered Rubio and Bush for the past decade.

Orlando-based political consultant John Dowless believes that Jeb has too many donors behind him to drop out in the near future.

 “Jeb isn’t going to drop out soon,” Dowless said. “He’s raised too much money. However, if he did, I do think Rubio would benefit the most.”

election-2016-button-180-2According to the University of North Florida, when respondents were asked who their second choice would be, 20.1 percent of respondents selected Rubio.

Carson held the second position with 14.9 percent, followed by Carly Fiorina with 11.1 percent and Bush with 10.2 percent. Only 6 percent of voters had Trump as their second choice.

When asked about candidate favorability, 52.5 percent of Republican primary likely voters have a favorable opinion of Trump and 39.9 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

Regarding Bush, 64.9 percent have a favorable opinion and 28.8 percent have an unfavorable opinion. Rubio is more popular as 81.1 percent of the respondents view him favorably, while only 13 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.

The Public Opinion Research Laboratory, through the use of a 27-station telephone-polling laboratory at UNF conducted the telephone survey.

The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client’s individual needs.

Since its opening in 2001, the PORL has conducted more than 120 research projects, which include focus groups, data collection, telephone, online and economic impact surveys.

The PORL is a Charter Member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative. Approximately 200 UNF students participated in the data collection.

Florida Statewide Survey 2015: Republican Primary Likely Voters.

What do you think is the most important problem facing the U.S. today?

Economy/ Jobs or Unemployment 35.4%
Terrorism 18.1%
Immigration 13.5%
Education 5.4%
Political Leadership (Vol) 5.4%
Healthcare 4.9%
Social Security 3.7%
Morality/Values (Vol) 2.4%
National Security (Vol) 2.1%
National Debt (Vol) 2%
Environment 1.8%
Something Else (Vol) 3.6%
Don’t Know (Vol) <1%
No Answer (Vol) 1%

If the Republican primary for president were being held today, for whom would you vote? 

Donald Trump 21.7%
Ben Carson 19.3%
Marco Rubio 14.9%
Jeb Bush 9%
Ted Cruz 6.8%
Carly Fiorina 6.5%
John Kasich 3.5%
Mike Huckabee 1.4%
Chris Christie 1.3%
Lindsey Graham <1%
Rand Paul <1%
Bobby Jindal <1%
George Pataki <1%
Rick Santorum <1%
Someone Else (Vol) 1.5%
Don’t Know (Vol) 8%
No Answer (Vol) 4.1%

Who would be your second choice? 
Marco Rubio 20.1%
Ben Carson 14.9%
Carly Fiorina 11.1%
Jeb Bush 10.2%
Ted Cruz 6.2%
Donald Trump 6%
John Kasich 3.3%
Chris Christie 2.1%
Mike Huckabee 1.6%
Rand Paul 1.6%
Bobby Jindal 1.2%
Lindsey Graham <1%
Rick Santorum <1%
George Pataki <1%
Someone Else (Vol) 1.4%
Don’t Know (Vol) 12.9%
No Answer (Vol) 6.3%

Favorable views of Jeb Bush
Favorable 64.9%
Unfavorable 28.8%
Never Heard of Him <1%
Don’t Know (Vol) 4.6%
No Answer (Vol) 1.3%

Favorable views of Marco Rubio
Favorable 81.1%
Unfavorable 13%
Never Heard of Him <1%
Don’t Know (Vol) 4.2%
No Answer (Vol) 1%

Can you tell me in a word or two, what is the most important quality that you are looking for in the next president? 
Honest 25.7%
Leadership 10.4%
Integrity 4.1%
Intelligent 2.6%
Strength 2.2%
Christian 1.7%
Conservative 1.7%
*All other responses less than 1.5 percent.