New Rasmussen Poll Shows Presidential Race Near Deadlock Tie After First Debate
By Rasmussen Reports // September 30, 2016
Clinton up one-point 42%; Trump 41%
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(Rasmussen Reports) – Following Monday night’s debate, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are running virtually even in Rasmussen Reports’ first daily White House Watch survey.
Our latest national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Clinton with 42% support to Trump’s 41%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson earns seven percent (7%) of the vote, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein holds steady at two percent (2%). Three percent (3%) still like some other candidate, and five percent (5%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Trump had been moving ahead over the two previous weeks and held a 44% to 39% lead over Clinton last week at this time. It was the first time he had been ahead since mid-July.
Eighty percent (80%) say they are sure which candidate they will vote for, and among these voters, Clinton and Trump are tied with 48% support each. Among voters who say they could still change their minds, it’s Clinton 34%, Trump 33%, Johnson 25% and Stein 8%.
The survey of 1,500 Likely Voters was conducted on September 26-28, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Forty-six percent (46%) of voters think Clinton is qualified to be president versus 35% who feel that way about Trump.
Clinton and Trump each have the support of 79% of the voters of their respective parties. Ten percent (10%) of Democrats favor Trump, while 13% of Republicans opt for Clinton.
Trump leads by 12 points among voters not affiliated with either major political party, but Johnson earns 15% support in this group. The Libertarian hopeful also picks up four percent (4%) of Republicans and two percent (2%) of Democrats. Stein gets six percent (6%) of the unaffiliated vote and remains in low single digits among the voters of the two major parties.
The GOP nominee has a nine-point advantage among men, while his Democratic rival posts an identical lead among women. Women voters are slightly more likely than men to be sure of their vote.
Clinton is still well ahead among voters under 40, although these voters are less certain of how they will vote than their elders are. Over 80% of those 40 and over are sure of their vote, and they prefer Trump by 10 points.
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Trump remains ahead among whites. Clinton maintains her overwhelming lead among blacks and is still slightly ahead among other minority voters.
Fifty-one percent (51%) of all voters consider the Clinton-Trump debates more important than the presidential candidate debates in previous elections. But voters are also pretty convinced the debate moderators will be helping Clinton more than Trump.
Voters think taxes and government spending will increase under a Clinton presidency but are less certain what will happen if Trump is elected.
Citing rising murder rates in several major cities, Trump argues that police should be allowed to stop and frisk anyone on the street whom they consider suspicious. Clinton says that unfairly targets minorities. Voters are more supportive of stop and frisk laws but remain concerned that they may violate some Americans’ rights.
Voters think Clinton is more likely to side with the protestors in situations like the recent one in Charlotte, N.C., but strongly believe Trump is on the side of the cops.
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