Colorado State University Predicts ‘Above Average’ 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

By  //  May 18, 2021

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Hurricane season begins June 1

Colorado State University has released its annual prediction that the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season will have above-normal activity, citing the likely absence of El Niño as a primary factor.

BREVARD COUNTY, FLORIDA – Colorado State University has released their annual prediction that the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season will have above-normal activity, citing the likely absence of El Niño as a primary factor.

“We anticipate that the 2021 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity,” said Colorado State University in a statement.

“Current weak La Niña conditions may transition to neutral ENSO by this summer/fall, but the odds of a significant El Niño seem unlikely.

Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are currently near average, while subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal.

We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.

As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”

The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and ends on November 30, and the National Hurricane Center will begin issuing regular Tropical Weather Outlooks on May 15, two weeks earlier than they did in the past.

The NHC, the National Weather Service and the World Meteorological Organization planned to discuss whether or not to move up the official start of the hurricane season to May 15 due to multiple seasons in the past that have had systems form before the official start of the season.

After discussing the possible change to the start date, it was decided that the start of the season would remain as June 1 for the 2021 season.

On December 9, 2020, Tropical Storm Risk issued an extended-range forecast for the 2021 season, predicting slightly above-normal activity with 16 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes and an ACE index of about 127 units.

TSR cited the expected development of a weak La Niña during the third quarter of 2021 as the main factor behind their forecast.

The following names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2021:

PLEASE NOTE: Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2022. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2027 season. This is the same list used in the 2015 season, with the exceptions of Elsa and Julian, which replaced Erika and Joaquin, respectively.

■ Ana (unused)
■ Bill (unused)
■ Claudette (unused)
■ Danny (unused)
■ Elsa (unused)
■ Fred (unused)
■ Grace (unused)
■ Henri (unused)
■ Ida (unused)
■ Julian (unused)
■ Kate (unused)
■ Larry (unused)
■ Mindy (unused)
■ Nicholas (unused)
■ Odette (unused)
■ Peter (unused)
■ Rose (unused)
■ Sam (unused)
■ Teresa (unused)
■ Victor (unused)
■ Wanda (unused)

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