When Margin Counts: MMA Betting Point Spread Facts

By  //  July 18, 2023

The top MMA betting sites and UFC betting sites provide MMA spread betting as a sort of wager on a fight. In this kind of wager, you bet on a boxer and the number of points by which they will prevail.

The +3.5 or -3.5 (+/- 5.5 in a title bout) following the fighter’s name distinguishes UFC point spread wagering from moneyline wagering.

You will instantly win this MMA wager if your fighter triumphs by finish (submission or knockout). Spread betting is much more advantageous if the fight ends in a decision. If your fighter is within +3.5 or -3.5 points of the total on the judges’ scorecards, you win.

To further clarify our MMA point spread betting tactics, let us have a more in-depth look at MMA spread wagering and use some example scorecards.

Point Spreads in MMA

The point spread bet would have required you to place a wager on either +5.5 for Henry Cejudo (the outsider) or -5.5 for Aljamain Sterling (the favorite) in their UFC bantamweight title match back in May.

Sterling won the bantamweight championship match by a three-way split decision, 48-47, 48-47, and 47-48. This indicates that Sterling prevailed by a single point (143 to 142) after adding the judges’ scorecard totals. Cejudo lost by one point, thus if you had bet on him and +5.5 points, you would have easily won this wager. You would have lost your wager if Sterling had been given a point spread of -5.5, as the champion failed to cover the spread.

This can also be thought of as your fighter receiving +5.5 points. You nonetheless win the bet even if he loses by a cumulative total of as much as 5.5 points on the scorecard. Instead of taking the underdog’s moneyline and losing outright due to a decision, UFC point spreads enable you to place a wager on the underdog with the assurance of a close decision win. In addition to lowering the payoff of a favorite relative to moneyline betting, these MMA wagers expose you to the possibility of losing in the scenario of a 30/27 or 50/45 unanimous vote.

As a result, choosing the favorite limits your opportunity to win in comparison to betting just on the moneyline.

Advanced Tips for Point Spreads in MMA

To include an underdog in a parlay, point spread bets constitute a fantastic option. You have won the point spread if you believe the underdog can lose but still win one round on each of the three scorecards.

Consider placing a point spread wager on the player with the greatest odds who is favored to win by a knockout. The moneyline and the under 2.5 rounds prop on a knockout combatant are two examples of various win conditions that some players would parlay on a single bout. The point spread wager may also be included on that parlay card.

How to Bet on MMA Spread

To fully clarify spread betting, let us place a fictitious spread wager on an MMA future.

In this hypothetical bout, we believe that Conor McGregor would drag Logan Paul to a decision. As a result, we bet on the underdog, Logan Paul, to cover the spread and either win or lose by tight decision. Since we can still win our stake even if Paul loses the fight, the Paul spread bets offers greater value compared to the McGregor moneyline and less risk than the Paul moneyline. We would lose our bet if McGregor wins by unanimous decision or by finishing first.  

On the other hand, if we go with McGregor’s -3.5 point spread, we would need him to triumph by unanimous decision or finish. But even if McGregor triumphs in a tight or split decision, we would still lose our wager.

In a contest that could end in a lopsided victory, you should not wager the spread. Avoid placing point-spread wagers on boxers who win by technical decisions and Dagestani-style fights in general. In both cases, the fighter either loses every round to eke out a victory or is stopped and knocked out.

Modern competitors with a strong track record of winning a unanimous vote without losing any rounds include Belal Muhammad and Merab Dvalishvili. Their exceptional results do not compensate for this and are not a justification for betting the spread as opposed to the more common moneyline wager.

Spread betting should not be considered if a match lacks competitiveness. A spread bet does not help big underdogs who have hopes for the haymaker upset. When thinking about spread betting, the following are some important considerations:

  • When a fan favorite puts on erratic performances,
  • You observe a challenger who is advancing swiftly,
  • Each fight features steady cardio from both boxers,
  • Both fighters lack significant high-level finishing skills,
  • Spread bets on unbeaten boxers against well-known finishers typically pay off,
  • A champion seeking to defend the belt by fighting safely,
  • An underdog you know has the ability to win by decision.

One of our favorite reasons to place an MMA spread bet is to wager the +3.5 or +5.5 underdog spread bets. If there is no compelling reason to switch from the moneyline to the points spread, do not do it.

A Hedge and a Hindrance in Point Spreads-Related MMA Betting

Keep in mind that the underdog is a stronger bet and the favorite is an inferior one (with a higher payout) when it comes to MMA spread betting. There are several ways to utilize the MMA spread bet, and after your first victory on a fighter who loses but still pays out, you might find it alluring.

We believe that after you comprehend the fundamentals of UFC spread betting, you will prefer to think about the spread to the underdog moneyline.